With the recent news that Americans purchased more crossovers than sedans for the first in history it's not hard to fathom why the luxury crossover is all the rage these days. The joke is that Audi is planning to put a Q in front of every number, BMW an X and Mercedes is already almost there. Nevertheless the reality is that for the luxury brands formal sedans still outsell their crossover counterparts by a significant margin, especially at BMW and Mercedes. The gap is smaller at Audi and Lexus was perhaps ahead of the trend altogether. Still everyone sees opportunity there for the taking with crossovers and a new entrant altogether is coming next year with Tesla. The biggest question is if the Model X will become the brand's best seller for the foreseeable future. Overall I would lean towards a yes as the Model S is certainly more a long the lines of a Mercedes CLS, BMW 6 Series and an Audi A7 and those models come up short sales wise to their crossover counterparts. Yet, the Model S will still be the "sedan" option it's not reasonable to expect the model X to outsell the S by margin that the Q7 does the A7 for example. As a further confirmation the Cayenne outsells the Panamera at Porsche which until recently had one option in each category much like Tesla will.
Based on the best estimates the Model S has done around 1,350 units a month this year and considering the newness factor of the Model X when it comes out compared to a well known commodity in the Model S, it's not unreasonable to predict at least 2,000 units a month for the Model X in its first year along with a slight drop off for the model S.
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