Can Tesla Model X Be The Quickest People Mover Ever?

Bentley is about to do it, Rolls-Royce is thinking about it, Mercedes has all but confirmed it with a Maybach, Porsche reinvented itself with one and Range Rover is ready to match any newcomers. Lamborghini has concepted it and Ferrari is experimenting on a smaller scale with the FF. All of a sudden the ultra luxury and performance SUV is no longer an oxymoron but a reality and the hottest new six figure segment. Not to be left out Tesla is on pace to join, after a few delays, as a more performance oriented rather than pure luxury entry. With a unique powertrain and falcon doors as its calling card. As the Model S P85D has shown there is potential for a special level of performance with the Model X that could be described as exotic, so let's virtually run the numbers on the Model X as with the P85D and Model 3 before. Given that the Model X figures to be more of a BMW 5GT type rather than a traditionally SUV design, it should not end up more than 500 pounds heavier than the S. The base Model S all wheel drive dual motor setup should give the X enough power to keep up with forced induction six cylinder competition, figure a 0-60 in a little under 6 seconds with  the1/4 mile in about 14.5 @ 95. It is the P85D setup that will make things truly interesting and place the Model X in the aforementioned realm. A combination of 691 horsepower, all wheel drive grip coupled with instantaneous torque should pull the X P85D ahead of any current hyper SUV to 60 in a sprint just a blade's edge short of 3.5 seconds. As things stand right now the Model X should keep its edge all the way through a barely over 12 second quarter mile at a little over 110 miles per hour. The latest X5M and subsequent future generation of the Cayenne Turbo and Mercedes GLE 63 AMG will get closer but still trail off the line and just begin to catch the Model X at the quarter mile. They will pull ahead then but it's rare to find enough room to push that far. Bentley's forthcoming Bentayga will fall short by over a second unless it too approaches the 700 horsepower plateau, but so far it looks like 650 horsepower will be its limit. Only a relatively light Lamborghini Urus* will stand a chance to match or edge the X in the mile a minute sprint but should proceed to put a gap at the quarter mile accounting a perfect launch. As seen recently that's not as easy as it seems at times and Lamborghini has been quiet on the Urus front lately. When it hits the streets the Tesla Model X P85D will very likely take the tittle of the quickest three row people mover around and even that of the quickest utility.

 *The powertrain choice for the Urus is intriguing as the Huracan's V10 seems a bit out of character for an SUV while the Aventador's V12 will have more than enough power but likewise out of character somewhat for an SUV and harder to fit upfront. A 4 liter twin turbo V8 makes the most sense but that engine would need to be turned up a little to over 650 horsepower to get closer to 3.5 seconds to 60 and a 11.5 second 1/4 mile pass at almost 125. That would be quite the crossover though with 675 or so horsepower.

Good Luck Redesigning These Five Cars

As the saying goes, success breads success more often than not in life. In the automotive world an aesthetically pleasing design can go a long way towards becoming a sales success. On the flip side, a great automotive design will also create headaches come redesign time. Just like a team coming of a championship winning season the expectations are sky high for successful designs. The following five designs aren't necessarily the most beautiful cars on the road today nor are they the top five designs on the market but they are all extremely successful for their brands and their respective segments and will prove to be difficult to maintain the successful aesthetics.

Jeep Grand Cherokee

Jeep got the latest Grand Cherokee styling so spot on that it is the definition of how a modern SUV should look like. Strong and muscular and just the right size as not to be too bulky it's a breath of fresh air in a segment populated by bulbous looking crossovers. It's rugged enough that you would think it's riding on a ladder frame but has enough design elements to keep it modern. Perhaps the only downside to the current Grand Cherokee is the SRT8 model that's not as sporty as the last one, nothing a Hellcat V8 can't fix though.

No Time For Half Measures

Mercedes and BMW have shown the world their visions for the future of electric mobility with the B-Class Electric Drive and the i3. That future however might be further out still. Both models have received generally positive reviews and a bit of market buzz but somewhat lukewarm sales. As Breaking Bad's Mike Erhmantraut famously said, half measures never work. In this case, both the upconverted B-Class and even the bespoke i3 are nothing more than half measures from Mercedes and BMW. Considering its pricing, the Model S took EV sales to a new continent when it hit Tesla stores two years ago. Perhaps a luxury touch was all that was needed, to ease some of the electric price premium. The truth is that no half measure, half hearted, effort will cut it if you want to duplicate Tesla's success, no matter your badge. After its own half measure effort with the Roadster, Tesla went full in with the model S matching the best of the luxury brands in design, engineering and performance and racking up sales equal to its top three competitors.

Nothing less than fully matching or exceeding Tesla's range and performance will cut it for any electrified model from the established luxury brands*.

The Tesla powered B-Class Electric Drive and the i3 are two of the more impressive (non Tesla) EVs on the market today but they still fall for all of the established EV shortcomings. The B-Class has a punchy electric powertrain and a tiny bit extra range but it's housed in Mercedes' least exciting model. One whose IC version was never good enough for the US. BMW went all in on i3's carbon fiber chassis to create a bespoke and very light model but then gave it styling more expressive than the Leaf's with no extra range. Both models are very reminiscent of how the brands handled hybrids previously. Late to the party and not truly representative of the storied brands' engineering prowess.

Much like Mercedes and BMW, Audi took a very cautious half hearted effort with its hybrids, see the Q5 hybrid. It really does exist! The A3 e-tron plugin looks to be more of the same. However, Audi's cautious approach to EVs might just be coming to an end in a big way. There are strong rumors about Audi creating a Model X fighter with 300 miles of range and a unique design of its own. The brand would be smart to take the long rumored Q8 in that direction. If true, Audi would be the first to assemble the ingredients needed for a legitimate Tesla competitor. An EV built from the start as an EV would be key as Audi isn't going to successfully make one out of an A model that matches an S for performance without costing more than the RS and still delivers Tesla's range. Nor is it going to come up with a conventionally styled sedan or coupe that will be more gorgeous and impactful than existing models without it becoming its flagship. And neither Audi, Bentley nor the market is quite ready for that yet. An EV only crossover coupe can stand on its own in the Audi lineup without really competing with its existing sedans, coupes or SUVs. Likewise, Mercedes will need to search for a segment that can take advantage of its latest gorgeous styling direction and not compete with an existing AMG model. BMW seems to be set up the strongest with its i sub brand, it's still far away as the i8 barely outruns the Model S and it takes a supercar profile and proportions to make the i styling work.

 

* The Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid is technically the closest Tesla competitor. In its plug in form the Panamera has about half the MPG and a tenth of the range of the Model S, isn't any quicker and is seriously aesthetically challenged in comparison at a significantly higher price.

 

Predicting Tesla Model X Sales

With the recent news that Americans purchased more crossovers than sedans for the first in history it's not hard to fathom why the luxury crossover is all the rage these days. The joke is that Audi is planning to put a Q in front of every number, BMW an X and Mercedes is already almost there. Nevertheless the reality is that for the luxury brands formal sedans still outsell their crossover counterparts by a significant margin, especially at BMW and Mercedes. The gap is smaller at Audi and Lexus was perhaps ahead of the trend altogether. Still everyone sees opportunity there for the taking with crossovers and a new entrant altogether is coming next year with Tesla. The biggest question is if the Model X will become the brand's best seller for the foreseeable future. Overall I would lean towards a yes as the Model S is certainly more a long the lines of a Mercedes CLS, BMW 6 Series and an Audi A7 and those models come up short sales wise to their crossover counterparts. Yet, the Model S will still be the "sedan" option it's not reasonable to expect the model X to outsell the S by margin that the Q7 does the A7 for example. As a further confirmation the Cayenne outsells the Panamera at Porsche which until recently had one option in each category much like Tesla will.

Based on the best estimates the Model S has done around 1,350 units a month this year and considering the newness factor of the Model X when it comes out compared to a well known commodity in the Model S, it's not unreasonable to predict at least 2,000 units a month for the Model X in its first year along with a slight drop off for the model S.