The One Graph That Illustrates The S-Class Dominance

The S-Class has always been the top selling luxury flagship sedan over its long and stories existence. At times competition from BMW, Lexus and more recently Audi has given it a challenge here and there. With an ever increasing amount of challengers it would appear that the S-Class would have its most difficult time yet, but that that is not the case. Mercedes has got its latest S-Class so right in its design and all other aspects that it is crushing its competition with no mercy. This isn't a Kentucky basketball road to perfection streak but rather a Ronda Rousey beatdown. Certainly the S-Class is the newest one in its immediate class but in the US it's also delivering these numbers without six cylinder entry level versions. A quick drive around Mitt Romney's La Jolla neighborhood backs up the numbers with anecdotal evidence that the S-Class is the go to luxury method of transportation. There are photos of the upcoming next generation 7 Series out there and it doesn't look to have what it takes. Audi has more time with its next A8 but Mark Lichte has more work to do. In fact, the same drive points out that the S-Class' closest competitor doesn't come from Germany at all but rather it's the American Tesla.

     

Can Tesla Model X Be The Quickest People Mover Ever?

Bentley is about to do it, Rolls-Royce is thinking about it, Mercedes has all but confirmed it with a Maybach, Porsche reinvented itself with one and Range Rover is ready to match any newcomers. Lamborghini has concepted it and Ferrari is experimenting on a smaller scale with the FF. All of a sudden the ultra luxury and performance SUV is no longer an oxymoron but a reality and the hottest new six figure segment. Not to be left out Tesla is on pace to join, after a few delays, as a more performance oriented rather than pure luxury entry. With a unique powertrain and falcon doors as its calling card. As the Model S P85D has shown there is potential for a special level of performance with the Model X that could be described as exotic, so let's virtually run the numbers on the Model X as with the P85D and Model 3 before. Given that the Model X figures to be more of a BMW 5GT type rather than a traditionally SUV design, it should not end up more than 500 pounds heavier than the S. The base Model S all wheel drive dual motor setup should give the X enough power to keep up with forced induction six cylinder competition, figure a 0-60 in a little under 6 seconds with  the1/4 mile in about 14.5 @ 95. It is the P85D setup that will make things truly interesting and place the Model X in the aforementioned realm. A combination of 691 horsepower, all wheel drive grip coupled with instantaneous torque should pull the X P85D ahead of any current hyper SUV to 60 in a sprint just a blade's edge short of 3.5 seconds. As things stand right now the Model X should keep its edge all the way through a barely over 12 second quarter mile at a little over 110 miles per hour. The latest X5M and subsequent future generation of the Cayenne Turbo and Mercedes GLE 63 AMG will get closer but still trail off the line and just begin to catch the Model X at the quarter mile. They will pull ahead then but it's rare to find enough room to push that far. Bentley's forthcoming Bentayga will fall short by over a second unless it too approaches the 700 horsepower plateau, but so far it looks like 650 horsepower will be its limit. Only a relatively light Lamborghini Urus* will stand a chance to match or edge the X in the mile a minute sprint but should proceed to put a gap at the quarter mile accounting a perfect launch. As seen recently that's not as easy as it seems at times and Lamborghini has been quiet on the Urus front lately. When it hits the streets the Tesla Model X P85D will very likely take the tittle of the quickest three row people mover around and even that of the quickest utility.

 *The powertrain choice for the Urus is intriguing as the Huracan's V10 seems a bit out of character for an SUV while the Aventador's V12 will have more than enough power but likewise out of character somewhat for an SUV and harder to fit upfront. A 4 liter twin turbo V8 makes the most sense but that engine would need to be turned up a little to over 650 horsepower to get closer to 3.5 seconds to 60 and a 11.5 second 1/4 mile pass at almost 125. That would be quite the crossover though with 675 or so horsepower.

Predicting What The Tesla Model 3 Will Do

While the Detroit Auto Show was beaming with high power debuts, Chevy took the show as an opportunity to go beyond its second generation Volt and present its Bolt concept with the promise of 200 miles of all electric range for only thirty (gov. assisted) thousand dollars. This works out to be about four times the range of the second generation Volt for the same money. While impressive, Elon Musk made a promise of his own that the eventual Tesla Model 3 will be even cheaper than the Bolt with a starting price of 35,000 before any incentives. With Chevy throwing down the gauntlet and following  and previous forecasting fun, let's see what an eventual Tesla Model 3 might bring to the table power and performance wise. Range is king for EVs and with Chevy hoping for hoping for 200 miles of range and Nissan mentioning 240 for its next Leaf there is no way that Tesla will go under 200 as the Model S is EPA rated at 208 in its base form. To hit that number and keep the 35,000 starting price Tesla would most likely use one of the Model S D's motors, either 188 or 221 horsepower should be the minimum for the base Model 3. Given a few more years of development and that number might climb closer to around 250, in the ballpark for entry level engines in premium models from Audi, BMW, Mercedes and others. A dual motor high performance Model 3 D with a pair of motors in the front and in the back seems all but guaranteed, giving it around 400-450 horsepower, again in the ballpark of RS5, M3 and C63 AMG. Given the price point the smaller Model 3 will likely use less exotic materials and construction than the Model S but will come with a smaller battery back too (figure 40-50 kWh) so its weight could be as little as 3,800 pounds to start if it's not all steel. With just a single electric motor of the stronger variety the Model 3 would likely get to 60 in about 6.5 seconds with a 1/4 mile in the low 15 second mark at just a little over 90 mph. About as good as any non-Tesla EV on the market today. Doubling the power with a dual motor set up upfront or using a more powerful Model S motor at the back should push a potential Model 3 P to 60 in the high 3 second range (say 3.7) and clear the quarter mile in about 12 seconds at around 111 mph. Once again in the ballpark of performance Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus and Mercedes models. We are years away from seeing official Model 3 specs and pricing and eventual performance validation, but it's all but guaranteed that it will end up a significantly more aesthetically pleasing design than Chevy's eventual Bolt*. Stay tuned for Model X performance preview later this week!

A little BMW i3, a little old Mercedes A Class, a little Renault, Tesla Can Do Better

*This is based on the thought that the Model 3 will be to the Model S what the A5 Sportback and 4 series Gran Coupe are to the A7 and 6 Gran Coupe. Musk mentioned that the Model 3 will be 20% smaller than the Model S making it BMW i3 sized at which point styling gets difficult and a performance version silly. It's hard to see it be quite that small but rather 20 inches shorter in length based on the brand's design scheme and positioning.



Good Luck Redesigning These Five Cars

As the saying goes, success breads success more often than not in life. In the automotive world an aesthetically pleasing design can go a long way towards becoming a sales success. On the flip side, a great automotive design will also create headaches come redesign time. Just like a team coming of a championship winning season the expectations are sky high for successful designs. The following five designs aren't necessarily the most beautiful cars on the road today nor are they the top five designs on the market but they are all extremely successful for their brands and their respective segments and will prove to be difficult to maintain the successful aesthetics.

Jeep Grand Cherokee

Jeep got the latest Grand Cherokee styling so spot on that it is the definition of how a modern SUV should look like. Strong and muscular and just the right size as not to be too bulky it's a breath of fresh air in a segment populated by bulbous looking crossovers. It's rugged enough that you would think it's riding on a ladder frame but has enough design elements to keep it modern. Perhaps the only downside to the current Grand Cherokee is the SRT8 model that's not as sporty as the last one, nothing a Hellcat V8 can't fix though.

No Time For Half Measures

Mercedes and BMW have shown the world their visions for the future of electric mobility with the B-Class Electric Drive and the i3. That future however might be further out still. Both models have received generally positive reviews and a bit of market buzz but somewhat lukewarm sales. As Breaking Bad's Mike Erhmantraut famously said, half measures never work. In this case, both the upconverted B-Class and even the bespoke i3 are nothing more than half measures from Mercedes and BMW. Considering its pricing, the Model S took EV sales to a new continent when it hit Tesla stores two years ago. Perhaps a luxury touch was all that was needed, to ease some of the electric price premium. The truth is that no half measure, half hearted, effort will cut it if you want to duplicate Tesla's success, no matter your badge. After its own half measure effort with the Roadster, Tesla went full in with the model S matching the best of the luxury brands in design, engineering and performance and racking up sales equal to its top three competitors.

Nothing less than fully matching or exceeding Tesla's range and performance will cut it for any electrified model from the established luxury brands*.

The Tesla powered B-Class Electric Drive and the i3 are two of the more impressive (non Tesla) EVs on the market today but they still fall for all of the established EV shortcomings. The B-Class has a punchy electric powertrain and a tiny bit extra range but it's housed in Mercedes' least exciting model. One whose IC version was never good enough for the US. BMW went all in on i3's carbon fiber chassis to create a bespoke and very light model but then gave it styling more expressive than the Leaf's with no extra range. Both models are very reminiscent of how the brands handled hybrids previously. Late to the party and not truly representative of the storied brands' engineering prowess.

Much like Mercedes and BMW, Audi took a very cautious half hearted effort with its hybrids, see the Q5 hybrid. It really does exist! The A3 e-tron plugin looks to be more of the same. However, Audi's cautious approach to EVs might just be coming to an end in a big way. There are strong rumors about Audi creating a Model X fighter with 300 miles of range and a unique design of its own. The brand would be smart to take the long rumored Q8 in that direction. If true, Audi would be the first to assemble the ingredients needed for a legitimate Tesla competitor. An EV built from the start as an EV would be key as Audi isn't going to successfully make one out of an A model that matches an S for performance without costing more than the RS and still delivers Tesla's range. Nor is it going to come up with a conventionally styled sedan or coupe that will be more gorgeous and impactful than existing models without it becoming its flagship. And neither Audi, Bentley nor the market is quite ready for that yet. An EV only crossover coupe can stand on its own in the Audi lineup without really competing with its existing sedans, coupes or SUVs. Likewise, Mercedes will need to search for a segment that can take advantage of its latest gorgeous styling direction and not compete with an existing AMG model. BMW seems to be set up the strongest with its i sub brand, it's still far away as the i8 barely outruns the Model S and it takes a supercar profile and proportions to make the i styling work.

 

* The Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid is technically the closest Tesla competitor. In its plug in form the Panamera has about half the MPG and a tenth of the range of the Model S, isn't any quicker and is seriously aesthetically challenged in comparison at a significantly higher price.

 

Can The Tesla Model S P85D Really Outperform the McLaren F1?

Having considered how legendary luxury brands can both be challenged and learn from Tesla and its continued drive for improvement let's take a closer look at what the dual motor P85D can do against its competition. And perhaps more importantly can it really outperform the legendary McLaren F1? Officially Tesla quotes the P85D and its combined  691 all wheel drive horsepower as  needing only 3.2 seconds to reach 60 mph and 11.8 for the quarter mile. Given the right conditions we can see someone dip under 3 seconds in the signature test, once though to be an almost unbreakable performance barrier.


This essentially puts the P85D slimly ahead of its closest competition, 3.2 seconds is coincidentally the best times recorded by the all wheel drive Audi RS7 and Mercedes CLS/E 63 AMG S models. Given that the P85D will do these numbers "mash and go" versus the launch control and brake torquing gives Tesla the advantage here. Things should stay close through the quarter mile as the RS7 and AMG S models have posted 1/4 times as quick as 11.5 seconds with most tests showing a tenth or two advantage to the Audi and Mercedes, still that's close enough to call it even with the driver's reaction time making the bigger difference. Looking at the trap speed things begin to change as the RS7 and AMG models have a trap speed of around 123. Tesla didn't provide a trap speed estimate but it should come in under 118. For reference the Tesla will be about half a second quicker to 60 than everyone's favorite 707 horsepower Dodge Challenger Hellcat and post an almost identical quarter mile time. The Hellcat does dominate with an unbelievable 126 trap speed. The gas powered cars should pull ahead past the quarter mile towards their higher eventual top speeds but you need an airfield to have that kind of fun. The AMG, M, and RS competition will trounce the Tesla around the track and not overheat after one lap, but the Model S wasn't really made for that.

In its marketing materials Tesla claims that the P85D's goal was to outperform the McLaren F1, one of the greatest supercars of all time according to Tesla. According to this test the P85D will in fact match the McLaren F1 to 60 as both do it in 3.2 seconds, the F1 though will obliterate it going forward making the comparison very short lived if technically true.

*Update: Motor Trend ran the numbers and 0-60 was in 3.1 seconds and 1/4 in 11.6. Kudos to Tesla for being spot on in its estimates. As predicted trap speed was below 118 @ 115.2 (115 was my internal thought all along!) which does mean that the quickest gas competition will pull ahead above 100. Still the dual motor upgrade would certainly qualify the P85D for a spot in our seriously dramatic in generation powertrain updates list.

Tesla As Foil To German Luxury Brands

The news that Mercedes sold a couple of thousand more cars than Audi in September wasn't particularly noteworthy in itself. It was however a great reminder at the total volume that the leading German luxury brands including BMW are doing worldwide putting them ahead of many "mainstream" brands. The brands all claim that sales aren't what they are chasing but sales are linked to profits and combined the two powers certainly impact the cars the brands produce. The other piece of news from last week, the Tesla D intro, actually serves as quite the foil for the Big 3 German luxury brands. Tesla's worldwide sales for all of 2014 will be about what Mercedes and BMW do in one month in the US alone, but it's the progression of improvement over at Tesla that makes it noteworthy. The D is set to match if not even surpass comparable AMG, M and RS models acceleration wise well up into big ticket range. The leap in performance and assistive technologies over the original Model S looks like an incredible commitment to the product and the vision of creating their version of the best possible car out there. It's the kind of product improvement that makes you question how true to words are the German brands to their famous taglines and what more that they could do if they were focused more on product rather than profit. Could they push even more performance today or make designs that much more daring and stunning? It will be intriguing to see over the next few years how the Big 3 change their products in response, if they do at all. Possibly completely uninfluenced, the Audi LA Auto Show concept is something to watch with Audi letting go of some of its design restraint. It's the kind of thinking that the established brands might need in the future.

 

We Are Far Too Spoiled to Even Realize It

Considering that Jaguar has spent over 2.5 billion on the XE you might almost feel a little bad for the brand given the somewhat lukewarm meh reaction outside of the British media. Looking at the elements at play in the XE it's clear that the automotive industry has all of us just a little bit spoiled and it's becoming harder than ever to impress us. The forthcoming high performance variant of the XE will likely match the power output of the famed Jaguar XJ220 super car that was once the fastest car in the world. Much like the XJ220, the XE features plenty of aluminum and is poised to lead a growing group of aluminum intensive cars at increasingly more reasonable prices. While the design is not unexpected, the XE does take the best of the XF while skipping the strangeness of the XJ. Impressively it does so with an aerodynamic coefficient of just .26 without looking like a Prius or a jellybean. Not to mention it's light years ahead of the awkward turtle X-Type it replaces. The XE is an excellent start to take a look at the state of the auto industry in the Fall of 2014 and how we take it for granted at times.

Full size luxury sedans are breaking into the 3s to 60 all while delivering 30 mpg on the highway. As impressive as that go is, the stop might be even more so as there are 5,000+ pounds SUVs that will outbreak a Lamborghini Murcielago. And if you forget to brake on your own many new cars will do so for you. If all else fails though you are better off than ever, the IIHS had to invent a new test to keep itself relevant and not hand out a gold star to every model. The older models looked bad at first against a very solid barrier but it didn't take long for newer models designed with the test in mind to pass with flying colors. Sure it's an element of test beating but so is the entire US education system and there should be tangible real world benefits as well. While Dr. Evil might never get his wish of sharks with laser beams your car might soon if the government cooperates and lets through technology that allows you to see twice as far as before without blinding anyone on the other side of the road. If that isn't impressive enough there is also a brand out there on every other brand's radar offering a very stylish and very quick car with a very usable electric range. Sure, the auto industry feels slow compared to monthly app updates and yearly new phone releases but there is also no option for a restart at 85 in the fast lane.

The Antithesis of Clean Design

Cadillac went for a streamlined look with its latest Escalade, the head lights flow into a side profile with subtle fenders and devoid of any unnecessary fender vents. The design works as intended until you get to the second row window that is bisected by dividers and plastic space fillers. On a spotless profile the window sticks out as out of place. Engineering logistics certainly dictate what designers can do with the window but the last generation Escalade was able to keep the glass completely clear of any obstructions. On the other hand, Cadillac's competitor Land Rover was able to do an excellent job cleaning up the side profile on its latest Range Rover Sport model. Gone was the unsightly divider of the first generation replaced with just a small plastic space filler at the bottom. It's a small change but it helps greatly in keeping the continuity of the Range Rover Sport design.

 

The Five Most Influential Cars of the Past Decade

A lot can happen in a decade in the world of sports, politics, art, technology and life in general. The same can also be said about the auto industry. Aside from the Volvo XC90, every surviving model has gone through at least one complete generation and some are on their third. With that in mind let's take a look at five models over the past decade that have had the greatest impact on the industry through their design or technology. The list is in chronological order to avoid picking favorites.

2004 Toyota Prius

It wasn't the first hybrid, it wasn't even the first Prius but the second generation Prius was the one that put hybrids on the map and eventually made nearly every automaker produce their own. Even the German brands. The second generation brought about 20% better city and 10% better highway fuel economy, at the time the Prius posted an unrealistic 60 mpg city and 51 highway labels*. Even more importantly the Prius brought a unique shape to the market in a usable size. The first generation Prius had an awkward sedan shape that didn't help its cause. Toyota would commit the same exact mistake a few years later with the Lexus HS hybrid that struggled to sell as well. The second generation Prius didn't make hybrids cool but it made them mainstream relevant. The latest million dollar halo cars from Ferrari, McLaren and Porsche are all... hybrids.

Hardest Working Powertrains In the Business

As with sports teams, smartphones and cars in general, not all horsepower ratings are created equal. The more instrumented tests you see the clearer it becomes that 200 horsepower from one brand does not necessarily result in the same performance as 200 horsepower from another. There are certainly some serious underachievers in the industry but for now let's keep it positive and take a look at three of the hardest working powertrain combinations (in alphabetical order) that make a mockery of physics and their competition.

Audi S6 4.0T V8

The current Audi S6 dropped a pair of cylinders and 1.2 liters of displacement between generations. It did gain a pair of turbos but on paper it lost 15 horsepower and gained only an irrelevant 8 lb-ft of torque. On paper the S6 represents a rare case of a new generation delivering less horsepower than before, something almost unheard of for a performance model. Thankfully, the S6 is an overachiever for the ages with magical turbos, all wheel drive grip and a dual clutch gearbox with launch control working in tandem to knock of nearly two seconds (3.7) from the sprint to 60 and add 11 mph (115) in the 1/4 mile trap speed versus the previous generation. It's one thing to compare models 6 years apart but let's see how the 4.0T compares to its contemporary competition. The Cadillac CTS Vsport brings the same 420 horsepower, more torque and less weight to the table yet it's almost a second slower to 60 and about 2.5 seconds to 130. The CTS Vsport is no slouch but it's hard to believe that the S6 is only packing 420 horsepower when it delivers performance on par with the 556 horsepower CTS-V.

Predicting Tesla Model X Sales

With the recent news that Americans purchased more crossovers than sedans for the first in history it's not hard to fathom why the luxury crossover is all the rage these days. The joke is that Audi is planning to put a Q in front of every number, BMW an X and Mercedes is already almost there. Nevertheless the reality is that for the luxury brands formal sedans still outsell their crossover counterparts by a significant margin, especially at BMW and Mercedes. The gap is smaller at Audi and Lexus was perhaps ahead of the trend altogether. Still everyone sees opportunity there for the taking with crossovers and a new entrant altogether is coming next year with Tesla. The biggest question is if the Model X will become the brand's best seller for the foreseeable future. Overall I would lean towards a yes as the Model S is certainly more a long the lines of a Mercedes CLS, BMW 6 Series and an Audi A7 and those models come up short sales wise to their crossover counterparts. Yet, the Model S will still be the "sedan" option it's not reasonable to expect the model X to outsell the S by margin that the Q7 does the A7 for example. As a further confirmation the Cayenne outsells the Panamera at Porsche which until recently had one option in each category much like Tesla will.

Based on the best estimates the Model S has done around 1,350 units a month this year and considering the newness factor of the Model X when it comes out compared to a well known commodity in the Model S, it's not unreasonable to predict at least 2,000 units a month for the Model X in its first year along with a slight drop off for the model S.

Evolution of Door Handles

Everybody knows about the evolution of dance, but the less well-known evolution of the door handle is nearly as impressive. In the ever more competitive automotive industry design is playing a bigger and bigger role even in previously mundane segments. Likewise, it's not enough anymore to simply to have a great profile to have a striking design, individual design elements such as head lights, tail lights, grilles and even door handles play a role. Even as one of the most functional and simple parts on a car, it is surprising to see the evolution of door handle design over the past couple decades and the way the industry quickly switches from one design to another as it gains popularity. Once just an afterthought, handles have become quite stylish in the last couple of years.