Predicting What The Tesla Model 3 Will Do

While the Detroit Auto Show was beaming with high power debuts, Chevy took the show as an opportunity to go beyond its second generation Volt and present its Bolt concept with the promise of 200 miles of all electric range for only thirty (gov. assisted) thousand dollars. This works out to be about four times the range of the second generation Volt for the same money. While impressive, Elon Musk made a promise of his own that the eventual Tesla Model 3 will be even cheaper than the Bolt with a starting price of 35,000 before any incentives. With Chevy throwing down the gauntlet and following  and previous forecasting fun, let's see what an eventual Tesla Model 3 might bring to the table power and performance wise. Range is king for EVs and with Chevy hoping for hoping for 200 miles of range and Nissan mentioning 240 for its next Leaf there is no way that Tesla will go under 200 as the Model S is EPA rated at 208 in its base form. To hit that number and keep the 35,000 starting price Tesla would most likely use one of the Model S D's motors, either 188 or 221 horsepower should be the minimum for the base Model 3. Given a few more years of development and that number might climb closer to around 250, in the ballpark for entry level engines in premium models from Audi, BMW, Mercedes and others. A dual motor high performance Model 3 D with a pair of motors in the front and in the back seems all but guaranteed, giving it around 400-450 horsepower, again in the ballpark of RS5, M3 and C63 AMG. Given the price point the smaller Model 3 will likely use less exotic materials and construction than the Model S but will come with a smaller battery back too (figure 40-50 kWh) so its weight could be as little as 3,800 pounds to start if it's not all steel. With just a single electric motor of the stronger variety the Model 3 would likely get to 60 in about 6.5 seconds with a 1/4 mile in the low 15 second mark at just a little over 90 mph. About as good as any non-Tesla EV on the market today. Doubling the power with a dual motor set up upfront or using a more powerful Model S motor at the back should push a potential Model 3 P to 60 in the high 3 second range (say 3.7) and clear the quarter mile in about 12 seconds at around 111 mph. Once again in the ballpark of performance Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus and Mercedes models. We are years away from seeing official Model 3 specs and pricing and eventual performance validation, but it's all but guaranteed that it will end up a significantly more aesthetically pleasing design than Chevy's eventual Bolt*. Stay tuned for Model X performance preview later this week!

A little BMW i3, a little old Mercedes A Class, a little Renault, Tesla Can Do Better

*This is based on the thought that the Model 3 will be to the Model S what the A5 Sportback and 4 series Gran Coupe are to the A7 and 6 Gran Coupe. Musk mentioned that the Model 3 will be 20% smaller than the Model S making it BMW i3 sized at which point styling gets difficult and a performance version silly. It's hard to see it be quite that small but rather 20 inches shorter in length based on the brand's design scheme and positioning.



Ford Steals An Eventful Detroit Auto Show

In a world where it is becoming next to impossible to keep a good secret, most brands have given up trying and often reveal their auto show gems as early as a month ahead of schedule. With that in mind the power of a true surprise has grown exponentially, especially if that surprise is a poster worthy supercar. The Acura NSX was supposed to be the supercar star of the NAIAS but then the Ford GT concept happened. There have been rumors of a GT resurgence and but nothing could quite prepare for a supercar more than worthy of an exotic badge. It's the Asterion that Lamborghini wished it could have debuted in Paris. The fact that the first shots of the GT came directly from the floor made this reveal that more exciting. Aside from the simple Lotus Evoraesque interior and a poor take on a racing steering wheel, the GT looks to challenge the very best much like the original GT40 did in the 1960s and a decade ago. Bucking most trends again Ford quotes as on sale date of 2016. The GT also gives credence that Chevy will finally make a mid engine "Corvette" after all those years. Following the no teaser route Ford rounded out its tremendous Monday with a worthy second generation Ford Raptor powered by a preview of the GT's EcoBoost and topped it all of with a track special Mustang GT350R complete with carbon fiber wheels from the factory. Likely a first for a car you can pronounce or hope to see. The only demerit was Ford's lack of actual horsepower numbers but others (Acura, Toyota) are just as guilty.

 

May 2012 Sales Recap

With supplies issues essentially behind them Toyota and Honda were able to post incredible sales increases compared to their May 2011 figures and even surpassing 2010 figures by a significant margin as well. Elsewhere the Chrysler Group continued its strong sales increase of the past year with surging sales at Chrysler itself, Jeep, and Ram brand. On the luxury side Lexus and Acura followed their parent brands with sales returning to previous levels while Mercedes achieved a nearly 20% sales improvement over last year. Overall May 2012 versus May 2011 sales were robust whichever way you look at it with only a couple of brands declining over a year ago. Of note was the Chevy Volt's strong month of 1,680 sales compared to the LEAF's showing of 510.

Of course as good as May was some were clearly expecting a little more perhaps indicating a possible slowing down in June or perhaps just a desire run an article about missing expectations while nearly doubling your sales.

September 2011 Sales Recap

Despite an uncertain economic outlook, September 2011 auto sales were about 10% better than a year ago and September turned out to be one of the best month of the year so far. As in previous months roughly two-thirds of the brands posted better sales than a year ago while Toyota and Honda continued to see their sales slide. Leading the pack was Maserati with an exceptional 46.3 percent improvement. In the mainstream category Chrysler and its truck division Ram posted improvements of 42 and 36% respectively. Powered by the debut of its much talked about American built Passat, Volkswagen was able to increase its sales by over 35% as well. Backing up its promise of great dealership availability Nissan posted a 28.2% sales increase, on the other hand its luxury division Infiniti only managed to better last year's results by 2.1%. Doing well in the luxury category Audi and BMW both posted 19.% sales improvements while Lexus continued to struggle with an 11.5% drop. Take a look at the chart below to see how all of your favorite automakers did in September.

As in previous months Nissan's LEAF outsold Chevy's Volt 1,031 to 723. While GM narrowed the gap in September the Nissan still enjoys a commendable 7,199 to 3,895 yearly sales lead which is easily confirmed on the street with the LEAF being a more common occurrence on the road than the Volt.

Volt Gets Its EPA Sticker Also

Hot on the heels of the EPA announcement that the Nissan Leaf will get 99 MPGe, the Chevrolet Volt received its own EPA sticker today. Unlike the all electric Leaf, the Volt is a plug in hybrid and thus has three distinct fuel economy figures. On a full battery charge the Volt will travel about 35 miles while getting 93 MPGe, or only slightly worse than the Leaf. After the initial battery charge runs out the Volt consumes gasoline like a regular car. The EPA rates the Volt at 35 city and 40 highway when running purely on gasoline, these numbers place it slightly above compact cars fuel economy wise. Overall, the EPA predicts that through a mix of electric and gasoline driving the Volt on average will achieve 60 MPG combined, this places the Volt 10 MPG ahead of the Prius. Of course this estimate depends on the amount of driving done with the gas engine running. A long highway drive with no opportunity to recharge will push the MPG down towards 40, while short trips around town will have the Volt's average over 60. While the Volt didn't live up to Chevy's 230 mpg hype claim, its electric efficiency is only slightly behind the lighter Leaf's and respectable in gas only mode.

With both the Leaf and the Volt ready to go on sale this December the electric vehicle battle is on and it's up to the consumer to see which vehicle they prefer. Looking solely at the EPA ratings, the Volt gives up little efficiency while providing a significant range advantage.