Predicting What The Tesla Model 3 Will Do

While the Detroit Auto Show was beaming with high power debuts, Chevy took the show as an opportunity to go beyond its second generation Volt and present its Bolt concept with the promise of 200 miles of all electric range for only thirty (gov. assisted) thousand dollars. This works out to be about four times the range of the second generation Volt for the same money. While impressive, Elon Musk made a promise of his own that the eventual Tesla Model 3 will be even cheaper than the Bolt with a starting price of 35,000 before any incentives. With Chevy throwing down the gauntlet and following  and previous forecasting fun, let's see what an eventual Tesla Model 3 might bring to the table power and performance wise. Range is king for EVs and with Chevy hoping for hoping for 200 miles of range and Nissan mentioning 240 for its next Leaf there is no way that Tesla will go under 200 as the Model S is EPA rated at 208 in its base form. To hit that number and keep the 35,000 starting price Tesla would most likely use one of the Model S D's motors, either 188 or 221 horsepower should be the minimum for the base Model 3. Given a few more years of development and that number might climb closer to around 250, in the ballpark for entry level engines in premium models from Audi, BMW, Mercedes and others. A dual motor high performance Model 3 D with a pair of motors in the front and in the back seems all but guaranteed, giving it around 400-450 horsepower, again in the ballpark of RS5, M3 and C63 AMG. Given the price point the smaller Model 3 will likely use less exotic materials and construction than the Model S but will come with a smaller battery back too (figure 40-50 kWh) so its weight could be as little as 3,800 pounds to start if it's not all steel. With just a single electric motor of the stronger variety the Model 3 would likely get to 60 in about 6.5 seconds with a 1/4 mile in the low 15 second mark at just a little over 90 mph. About as good as any non-Tesla EV on the market today. Doubling the power with a dual motor set up upfront or using a more powerful Model S motor at the back should push a potential Model 3 P to 60 in the high 3 second range (say 3.7) and clear the quarter mile in about 12 seconds at around 111 mph. Once again in the ballpark of performance Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus and Mercedes models. We are years away from seeing official Model 3 specs and pricing and eventual performance validation, but it's all but guaranteed that it will end up a significantly more aesthetically pleasing design than Chevy's eventual Bolt*. Stay tuned for Model X performance preview later this week!

A little BMW i3, a little old Mercedes A Class, a little Renault, Tesla Can Do Better

*This is based on the thought that the Model 3 will be to the Model S what the A5 Sportback and 4 series Gran Coupe are to the A7 and 6 Gran Coupe. Musk mentioned that the Model 3 will be 20% smaller than the Model S making it BMW i3 sized at which point styling gets difficult and a performance version silly. It's hard to see it be quite that small but rather 20 inches shorter in length based on the brand's design scheme and positioning.



Ford Steals An Eventful Detroit Auto Show

In a world where it is becoming next to impossible to keep a good secret, most brands have given up trying and often reveal their auto show gems as early as a month ahead of schedule. With that in mind the power of a true surprise has grown exponentially, especially if that surprise is a poster worthy supercar. The Acura NSX was supposed to be the supercar star of the NAIAS but then the Ford GT concept happened. There have been rumors of a GT resurgence and but nothing could quite prepare for a supercar more than worthy of an exotic badge. It's the Asterion that Lamborghini wished it could have debuted in Paris. The fact that the first shots of the GT came directly from the floor made this reveal that more exciting. Aside from the simple Lotus Evoraesque interior and a poor take on a racing steering wheel, the GT looks to challenge the very best much like the original GT40 did in the 1960s and a decade ago. Bucking most trends again Ford quotes as on sale date of 2016. The GT also gives credence that Chevy will finally make a mid engine "Corvette" after all those years. Following the no teaser route Ford rounded out its tremendous Monday with a worthy second generation Ford Raptor powered by a preview of the GT's EcoBoost and topped it all of with a track special Mustang GT350R complete with carbon fiber wheels from the factory. Likely a first for a car you can pronounce or hope to see. The only demerit was Ford's lack of actual horsepower numbers but others (Acura, Toyota) are just as guilty.

 

Running The Numbers On The Acura NSX

The Acura NSX was likely going to be the most anticipated debut at the quickly approaching North American International Auto Show and with the cat out of the bag on the Cadillac CTS-V and the Audi Q7, Detroit is Acura's playground. We are only a few weeks away from seeing the final product and hearing the specs for the first time but many months away from actual performance tests making now as good a time as any to run some numbers on Acura's upcoming supercar contender, virtually. Going from a front mounted V10 concept nearly a decade ago, the second generation returns with a more authentic mid engine layout but with twin-turbos for the V6 and electric motors giving all wheel drive capability. The brand new, and seemingly unrelated to any current Honda V6, twin-turbo V6 is rumored to be around 3.7 liters in displacement. Similar sized powertrains make anything from 500 to a shade over 600 horsepower in various performance applications. Given Honda's history with turbo engines and a potential desire to reach some MPG targets with the hybrid powertrain it is hard to see a heavily boosted engine so something around 525 horsepower out of the V6 is a good basis. Nothing wrong with getting more than less here though. The RLX hybrid setup is good for an additional 67 horsepower towards peak output so when all is said and done a number of 600 combined horsepower seems very logical. Seeing the inherent weight penalty on the RLX hybrid with this setup it is hard to see the NSX dipping much below 3,750 pounds. Given the all wheel drive grip and the electric motor torque the NSX should be as quick as anything not purely exotic off the line to 60. Figure a time of 3.2 seconds or even slightly better to 60 and anything over 3.5 seconds would be a pretty big disappointment. The NSX should lose some momentum as speeds pick up going through the 1/4 mile in around 11.5 seconds with a trap speed of about 125 miles per hour placing it right in the middle of some very established competition. Competition due for replacement or thorough updates around the same time frame. It is game on for Acura and only time will tell if the newest NSX can ultimately deliver what promises to be 458 Italia performance for Audi R8 price and how it will play with the Z06, GT-R and 911s of the world.

Wishful Thought: Bring Back Three Door SUVs

The BMW X6, an idea that still baffles on paper but every time you see one on the road it has enough design presence to make it work. BMW has sold over 250,000 all over the world since its introduction, enough to warrant a second generation in the near future, an X4 sibling and a few competitors. The ZDX was an almost immediate response from Acura that never caught on, but Mercedes has the MLC almost ready and the rumors always persist about Audi following suite. With automakers willing to take some risks in the SUV category it seems more reasonable than ever to bring back the 1990s trend of three door SUVs. Back in the day it seemed like you can order your favorite SUV in a three door version starting with the "short bus" RAV4 all the way to the full size Tahoe. The three door SUV was the 1990s equivalent of the five door coupe of today. Take your best selling product and sacrifice some practicality and reason for some extra style. The Range Rover Evoque is currently the best example of how dropping a door per side can add to an SUV's design. Judging by purely anecdotal evidence the three door Evoque has single digit take rate, but with more and more automakers implementing modular platforms it should be more cost effective than ever to produce a unique three door SUV. Not saying it's a trend that is bound to happen but I wouldn't mind if it did.

The Range Rover Evoque offers a three door option

 

Even full size SUVs had the three door option

Everyone's favorite Audi Steppenwolf Concept

Super Bowl XLVI Auto Commercials Ranked

As a game Superbowl XLVI turned out to be pretty good thanks to the last four minutes even if it was close yet quite average for most of the previous three quarters and change. Of course the actual game does not define a Super Bowl as some actually claim to watch the game for the commercials only.  As a whole this year's batch of commercials appeared to have less lolz than last year's edition. Nevertheless the automotive industry not only ran the most ads but also managed to have some of the best ads on Super Sunday. Here is my top five:

1. Chevy: Happy Grad

A high school graduate goes wild when he sees that his parent bought him a new Camaro convertible as a graduation present until we see that they actually didn't. This ad is simple yet very funny.



2. Acura: NSX

Great commercial overall, the only problem is that the NSX is very far from production but the commercial still works brilliantly.



3. Chevy: Chevy Silverado

The predicted 2012 Apocalypse comes true, somewhat, and Silverados are still driving around while F-150s are not. A pretty good commercial overall and one that got Ford all riled up and apparently helped Ford sell more F-150s than it did Silverados.



4. Fiat: 500 Abarth Seduction

Fiat has been under fire by the critics for lower than promised sales and an ad campaign that has left much to be desired. A simpler commercial might just be what Fiat needs and this one delivers.



5. Volkwagen:  The Dog Strikes Back

Volkswagen essentially had the best ad last year and unfortunately the sequel is not as good this time around but the two part commercial still takes fifth.